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The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500

Monday, March 9th., 2009 - Special Report

The Big "Bull/Bear" Picture ...

Investors need models of various time periods to trade the markets. While most investors look at daily and intra-day charts, most avoid focusing on the longer term.

While the markets will fluctuate on a daily and weekly basis, we find that 'Monthly" charts give the best picture of when a Bull market starts and ends.

It is also the best time period for tracking Bear Markets. Not knowing when a Bear market starts and ends can financially hurt investors and wreck havoc on their retirement plans.

Today, we will share our Long Term Bull/Bear Market Model. (It is posted every day on our paid subscriber sites and updated weekly.)

The Long Term Bull/Bear Model for the S&P 500 ...

This is a monthly chart for S&P 500. To signal changes in Bull and Bear Market conditions, we use 3 indicators: The MACD, a MACD Histogram, and a Stochastic Oscillator.

What signals has the Bull/Bear Model given?

First, on March 31, 1995, the Model gave the signal for a New Bull Market. That signal lasted until November 20, 2000 when it became time to exit.

And then, On November 20th. 2000, that was the signal for a new Bear Market. That Bear Market lasted until May 31st. 2003, at which time our Model signaled that it was time to exit the Bear Market.

The beginning of our last Bull Market was therefore signaled on May 31st. 2003. That Bull Market remained in force until January 31st. 2008 when a down signal was triggered.

That brings us to where we are now. The current Bear Market on this model started in January of LAST year. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to look at today's chart and see that we are still in a Bear Market.

While this model explores the long term, there are weekly and daily fluctuations in the market. Typically, a Bear Market will have 4 to 5 instances where the S&P will move above our red trend line. That has only happened twice so far. The last occurrence was last September. So it has now been 6 months since we have seen the monthly bars rise above the red trend line.

From a weekly or daily perspective, these periods can give some nice upside trades. As of last Friday, the monthly Stochastic Oscillator showed a very oversold condition. With that condition, it shouldn't be too long before we see a Bear Market rally. Remember that this is a monthly chart that we update weekly .... not a daily chart.

*****Click on this link to get a short instructional video on the indicators and settings that we use: http://www.stocktiming.net/. On that page, click on Seminar #1-How to Predict a Bull or Bear Market.

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